Weekly Bitcoin Technical Analysis — 2026-03-04
Price has collapsed below all four moving averages in a decisive bearish break, with the weekly close at $71,368 sitting roughly $16K below the MA(200) at approximately $87K. The MA(10), MA(20), and MA(30) have all rolled over and are fanning downward, converging toward the MA(200) in a classic bearish configuration. This death cross formation confirms structural weakness, and the nearest meaningful support now resides around $68K-$70K, with major support at the October 2024 lows near $58K. The current weekly candle shows a small-bodied indecision bar after a steep decline, suggesting exhaustion but no confirmed reversal yet.
Volume surged dramatically during the selloff weeks in late 2024 and early 2025, validating the breakdown. Recent weeks show elevated but declining volume, typical of a washout phase. The lack of strong buying volume on the latest candle means bulls have not yet stepped in with conviction. Until weekly volume expands on an up-week, the path of least resistance remains lower.
Both PPO indicators are deeply negative. The long-term PPO (21,34,0) sits at approximately -10.4 and continues to trend downward, well below zero with no sign of bullish divergence. The short-term PPO (5,13,0) is at roughly -12.5, also firmly negative and declining. Neither oscillator shows any bullish crossover or momentum reversal—both signal persistent downside pressure with no medium-term catalyst visible.
The StochRSI (14) is reading near 0.419, well into oversold territory and beginning to curl higher, hinting at a possible short-term bounce but not a trend reversal. The Full Stochastic %K(14,3) at 14.61 and %D at 13.44 are both deep in oversold (<20) and have not yet crossed bullish—price remains stuck in the penalty box. The CCI (20) at -117.38 is below -100 (oversold), but has not yet turned upward convincingly. While these oscillators flag oversold conditions that could trigger a relief rally, none have confirmed a bullish reversal signal on the weekly timeframe.